Mikey, Vanessa, Barry and the Real World

I cringe a little every time a WSOP bracelet is awarded; one more I didn’t get to see in person. But I cringe more for some than for others.

I missed Mike Matusow’s bracelet in the Deuce to Seven Lowball. And since this WSOP will be the final chapter in Mikey’s book, I would have loved watching this one from the bleachers. Of course the Poker Shrink was there to record the details. And I read every hand and every interview. But it’s not quite the same thing as being there. Mikey also made the final table in $10K Omaha hi/lo and judging from the live reports, he was almost literally wired for sound. It seemed like every other entry quoted the lyrics of one of Mike’s poker “songs.”

Since Mike started playing the WSOP in 1997, he’s made a final table every year except two. In 1998 he didn’t make a final table, but instead was one of three backers to pick Scotty Nguyen to win the WSOP Championship. And in 2007, he came close three times with 11th, 15th, and 16th place finishes. He was so mad at how he played the main event that year, he wanted a second chance. So he went across the street and came in second in the WPT Bellagio Cup III that same week. Read More »

WSOP Vampires and the Man Behind the Hat

Since the WSOP began, I start each day with a bitch-slap by my cat Sammy, delivered at 3:30am. Alarm clocks have nothing on Sammy. Sammy has extra big paws replete with extra toes, and his swat is like no other. Also, Sammy’s need-to-feed is timed more accurately than the CS2 atomic clock.

As I stumble through the dark living room, I click on the laptop. By this time the silent cat alarm has sounded. Blacula is hurling himself against the back door for food, while Java weaves underfoot. Needless to say, my mostly nocturnal cats are loving my new schedule. From there, I start a 12-cup pot of coffee.

While I am certain that no humans have stirred in my neighborhood, I know I am not alone. I envision Falstaff bumping around his house at the same time, although different time zone. Both of us will spend the next few hours pouring through WSOP reports and recapping the day’s most recent events. Read More »

Being There

Chauncey Gardener: I like to watch.

On Friday afternoon, everyone in the office was quietly cranking away. At 2:00 pm central time, I stood up at my desk and bellowed, “Shuffle up and deal.” It’s been a number of years since I missed the WSOP first siren’s call to poker players around the world. I sat back down at my desk and continued to work, my head in Austin — my heart in Vegas.

Once home, I got even more verklempt after receiving a nice note from WSOP Media Director and friend, Nolan Dalla. By the time I came across Pauly’s shout out, I was downright home-away-from-home sick. When I made the choice not to go out to Vegas this year, I knew it was going to be hard. I didn’t realize how hard until the first day of play. Read More »

WSOP: The Way We Were

Every time I say it’s a game, you tell me it’s a business.
Every time I say it’s a business, you tell me it’s a game
– Nick Nolte’s character in North Dallas Forty

The news that the WSOP is parting with its traditional final table ways has been out for a couple of weeks now. I had just seen the title of the announcement in my email when the phone rang. I knew it was BJ Nemeth before the second ring. BJ and I had a number of conversations about it since the rumor broke more than six months ago. Players seem to either hate it or are backing it in reaction to the harsher economic realities that have been undermining the business of poker. And while I get both sides of the reactive coin, I also recognize that my currency differs from most when it comes to poker. For me, playing a final table months after the event doesn’t represent a change – just another step in the evolution away from the game of poker I came to know and love.

I liked poker before it was popular; before it was a business. And maybe, just maybe, I liked it because it wasn’t mainstream. It was my secret world. I remember going to the World Poker Open in 2002 and wandering between the tables – brushing past the players that, up until that point, I had only read about. I chatted with them in the hallways; usually over a fast cigarette at the breaks. It was there that I would play my first “major” event – busting out half-way through when my flopped top pair/top kicker got outrun by a turned set. It was also there that I performed my first official sweating duties. I had met Judy Ingram at breakfast before the Ladies event. As she progressed throughout the day, she invited me to sweat her and provide chip count and player updates until she eventually made the final table; she finished in third place. Other than players’ spouses, there were no spectators. And other than Nolan Dalla – there was no media.

In 2003, before Chris Moneymaker would alter poker’s mainstream potential, I chatted with Perry Friedman on the sparsely populated WSOP bleachers as we sweat Chris Ferguson to his Omaha hi/lo bracelet. A week later, he would win another in the mixed limit holdem/seven card stud event. It would be almost another month before ESPN would bring in their film crew to televise the main event.

I love the old ESPN WSOP footage; documentaries of a game, not the entertainment business that it has become. And other than High Stakes Poker, I haven’t enjoyed televised poker more than I enjoyed the subdued intensity of pre-boom ESPN.

I understand the economic benefit to players, Harrah’s, and ESPN to try to keep the post-boom era from slipping away. And I absolutely understand the economic realities of the agents, writers, magazines, news websites, and of course online poker sites, that grew in the wake of poker’s popularity. Trust me: I do realize that my ability to make a living writing about poker was a direct result of the mainstreaming and monetization of poker. Even so, my attachment to poker has always been emotional not economic. In a contest between “the game” and “the business” – game was the no-brainer.

Many of poker’s economic beneficiaries are desperately fighting to hold on to the vestiges of the ebbing poker boom. They are hoping that four months of hype will be just the miracle cure needed to save an ailing patient. But whether the business of poker thrives or fades, the poker that I first loved won’t be resurrected either way. So at this point, I view the WSOP final table change with almost distant ambivalence. I understand the reasons for optimizing the promotion of poker and all the economic threads woven into that cloth. I know that finding an alternate media model may be paramount to ”saving” the business of poker. And I guess at this point, I will wish them the best of luck.

You hold on and I don’t know how. I wish I did. I can’t get negative enough. I can’t get angry enough. And I can’t get positive enough.
– Robert Redford’s character in The Way We Were

Victories, Contractions, and Stimuli

Congratulations to David Chiu (pictured left), who put in a spectacular come-from-behind performance against Gus Hansen (pictured below) at the WPT Championship yesterday. I was happy to see the WPT Championship draw a pretty healthy crowd; off only slightly from last year. There were a lot of great names in contention down the stretch. Today’s pics are of players that had a nice run there. I still haven’t heard if the WPT was able to get a deal with GSN for Season Seven yet. I think the decision deadline is sometime in May,but WPT isn’t scheduled to film in the next couple of months, so that could be extended.

I started playing poker in the dark years; when poker rooms were closing to the onslaught of slot machines. I was just about coming to terms with the fact that I had fallen in love with a terminally ill game when Chris Moneymaker burst on the scene. The boom that followed was awe-inspiring, but it created the excess that all booms and trends encourage. Every casino, big and small, added a poker room. Existing poker rooms expanded. And now that the bloom is off the boom rose, it’s not surprising that some of the excess capacity is falling off with the petals.

I recently read that Paris and TI are both closing their poker rooms during the graveyard shift. Rumors are also swirling that Paris has already set a date to permanently close their room. I doubt we’ll see any changes in the “big” rooms like the Bellagio, Wynn, Mirage, etc. – but I suspect that some of the smaller rooms around Vegas will be rethinking their commitment to poker once this year’s WSOP is over.

I’ve been two whole weeks doing the 9-to-5 gig. I’d love to play the day job martyr card – but I don’t think I’d get much sympathy. The “office” is only ten miles from my house – which is just about the right amount of time to mellow out with NPR. By the time I get to my Hill Country enclave, I’ve been suitably informed about the plight of Canadian forests (pine beetles are really taking a toll), the still unclear election results in Zimbabwe, and how loopholes are used to fund the political party conventions. The work is interesting. My work buddies are fun and hardworking. The boss has bought lunch for the office twice already. And there are two does and a fawn that graze right outside my window. I feel stupid at least once a day – but for a new job that’s actually not bad. And I’m learning a lot.

My biggest issue is finding a new routine – or any routine for that matter. My only routine for the last few years was turning on the laptop and letting it boot while I made my morning coffee. After that, anything could happen. Now I realize that I can’t really get in a good blog read until the weekend – which is a long time to wait for Change100’s ”Idol” recaps (the best on the web imo). Although it was her “Domestication by IKEA” post that had me both giggling and nodding in sad recognition this week. I’m also very glad to see Up For Poker experiencing a resurgence. Some great content is being offered up there – I think they have definitely caught their second wind.

When I told a friend I was taking a “real” job, she said, “What the hell for? You never buy anything.” While I am correctly known for my frugality, I do buy what I think I need – just not at retail. All that being said, I’ve been on something of a spending spree lately. I bought new tile (40% below list price) for my kitchen and family room. I recently replaced my 1994 Mazda (aka the “Green Monster”) with “Rosita” (used and below book value). After researching and combing craigslist for three months, I just pulled the trigger on a brand new desktop system (with a 32.5% off coupon) and a new widescreen monitor that pivots to portrait for easier editing. I got a nice quad processor with a decent (not top end) video card that will handle dual monitors with dvi. I stayed with XP – but this system can easily handle Vista when I think all the bugs are finally out. If I keep at my current pace, Congress can safely hold back on further stimulus packages.

I’m currently doing research on my next purchase – and I’d appreciate any recommendations. I need a good pair of headphones for work – i.e. plugged into the computer. I can’t wear ear buds; they drive me insane and give me ear aches. I need a closed pair as sound leakage would be an issue at work. I also don’t want to fuss with a headphone amp. Any suggestions?

Pics (all taken at the 2007 WSOP):
1. David Chiu, winner of the 2008 WPT Championship
2. Gus Hansen, runner up
3. Cory Carroll, 4th place
4. Bryan Devonshire 12th place
5. Karga Holt, 8th place
6. Nick Binger, 15th place

P.S. I since bought a pair of Sennheiser HD 280 Pros. I highly recommend dealing with Sweetwater for audio gear – good prices and great (and deserved) reputation in the biz.

Gavin Grins, BJ Spins, and Writer’s Block-aids

By now, the poker world has realized that Gavin Griffin has become our first Triple Crown winner; winning events in each of the three major poker tours. In 2004, he won his World Series of Poker bracelet in the $3K PLH event. In 2007, he won the European Poker Tour’s Grand Final in Monte Carlo. This week he won the World Poker Tour’s Borgata Winter Open. I’m beginning to suspect the boy can play. And yes, I chose this picture of him, taken during the 2007 WSOP, to deflect comments about my own hair in my previous post. Of course Gavin’s hair choice had little to do with the style du jour and everything to do with raising breast cancer awareness. Gavin got his start as a writer, which actually gives me no encouragement whatsoever about my poker playing potential.

I hadn’t talked to my buddy BJ (”promo” picture right) in awhile and was tickled to see him comment on my last post. Without thinking, I picked up the phone to call him. Of course he didn’t answer as he was covering the final table that Gavin was about to win. D’oh. I caught up with him last night as he was waiting for his pizza to be delivered. I like talking with BJ because it gives me a chance to channel my inner poker media nerd. We can spend hours talking about poker media models, analyzing camera angles, and dissecting different player ranking systems. I am a little pissed at him, however, because I see from his comment that he finally perfected time travel, a topic we’ve discussed often, and didn’t tell me.

Most people only see BJ as the consummate media nerd; head bent over a smokin’ laptop or behind a lens. I guess that’s why his work crew was a little surprised to see “gambling BJ” emerge during their last night in Atlantic City. The crew was looking for some mindless and cheap gambling entertainment and decided to hit the $5 roulette wheel at the Showboat. While others played the short odds, BJ went long. After he hit for a nice payday, everyone started shooting for big payoffs. BJ was up pretty good on the night when they were about to take their final spin. He pocketed his initial investment and $20 and put everything else on the board. People were shocked. He hit, leaving the table up about $700. His work crew was a little dumbfounded by the whole experience. But guys, if we didn’t have a little bit of a gambler’s heart, would we be in this business?

Although I’ve made some progress, I’m still fighting through some writer’s block issues. I’ve had to go to the mattresses on this one. Before I offer up some things I’ve found helpful over the years when the word flow slows to a trickle, let me first pay homage to the blockless blogger. Al Can’t Hang logged in with his 1000th post. Now that, ladies and gentlemen (and bloggers), is some writin’. Congrats Al. So back to the cure that Al doesn’t need.

Stock Up: Treat writer’s block like your inner hurricane warning. Go to the grocery store and get everything you might possibly need for the next few days. For a real hurricane you might buy bottled water and canned goods. For writer’s block, think wine, coffee, chocolate, cigarettes, and the ultimate block combatant; Smarties – there’s nothin’ like a good sugar high.

Sanctuary: In a real hurricane, you would hole up in a well supported inner room without windows. For writer’s block, you need a clutter free space with some filtered natural light. You don’t actually want a good view of the world outside as that leads to distraction. You just need some reminder that it actually exists. Finding anything clutter free in my house (because of the tiling work still in process) was almost an impossible feat. I actually thought about working from the jacuzzi tub in the master bath, as that is one of the only rooms that isn’t piled high with furniture. Instead I had to downsize my idea of sanctuary and am working from the bed in the guest room. The bed is at least clutter-free, unless you count cats. I am trying to ignore the fact that I’m sharing the room with dining room chairs and hundreds of CDs in various boxes and crates. It’s not exactly optimum, but it will do for now.

Grind it Out: Most people have a vision of poker as a constantly thrilling and glamorous occupation. But we all know that to make it in poker, you have to spend a lot of time just grinding it out. A lot of people have a similar romantic notion of writing. For me, divine inspiration usually comes only after days of writing and focused contemplation. In other words, to ultimately write well, I have to keep writing – anything – even if it’s just writing about my writer’s block. It’s like the shark that has to keep swimming. It’s a game of inertia and momentum. Dr Chako offered up a great quote from the composer Leonard Bernstein “Inspiration is wonderful when it happens, but the writer must develop an approach for the rest of the time… The wait is simply too long.” The Doc gets it. The good news is that I am writing – not yet what I want – but it is hopefully just a matter of time.

Risk vs. Reward: Dave Scharf (”promo” picture right), the best editor I ever worked with – and a hell of a poker player and writer, advised that writing under the threat of something loathsome was a great block breaker. I tend not to respond well to threat; I’m a reward girl. The most prolific I’ve ever been as a writer was when I isolated myself in the mountains of New Mexico. For every 20 pages I wrote, I would reward myself with an hour’s drive for an evening of poker at the Cities of Gold casino. I haven’t yet come up with a reward system for my current situation, but I think this may be one case where real progress will be a reward unto itself.

Oh and thanks for the comments on my last post. My biggest fear after posting it was that people would be too horrified to even acknowledge their horror. Even wildbill’s “speechless” comment was a relief. And of course the biggest silver lining was that one of my best friends in high school found me through this post – because he actually recognized me!

(Cas)set(te) Me Back in Time

One of the things I wanted to do once I tiled the floor was to replace my old entertainment center. It’s a teak veneer deal that was all the rage back in the 80’s when I bought it. One of the smoked glass doors has a big crack in it – the crack is more than ten years old. But you know I don’t buy anything retail, so I had been scouting craigslist, keeping an eye open. Last week I bought a solid ash hand crafted entertainment center for $50. I think it was made back in the 80’s. Hmm.

I still have a lot of albums, but I didn’t realize until yesterday, while cleaning out the old entertainment center, just how many cassettes I had. I can’t remember the last time I listened to one. I was going through the dusty tapes – The Police, Guns and Roses, Miles Davis, etc – and then I saw it; GASP.

If you’ve read the 50 things about me page, your might remember #10 was that I once was in a band called Guido and the Scum Puppies. At one point we really did have a drummer named Guido. Last I heard, he was doing stucco work in Trenton NJ. I listened to the old tape. Damn, for the 80’s it wasn’t half bad. While I won’t name all the songs (I can only embarass myself so many times in a thread and the pictures are damning enough), I particularly enjoyed And She Was by the Talking Heads and Heartbreaker by Pat Benatar.

Finding the tape assured me I still had pictures somewhere – but where. My house is ridiculous to navigate at this point as furniture from the rooms I’m tiling are jammed into every other room in the house. But I had to find the pictures. Why? Because I’m having a horrible case of writer’s block right now and somehow finding the pictures was going to fix all that – or at least kill time. Today, victory was mine. A fit of giggles was also mine. Man, the 80’s was a tough decade not to look silly in.

I leave you with this parting picture, with a look that must have been inspired by Farah Fawcett without the teeth. OMG!!! I sure hope I can write now, otherwise this won’t have been worth it.

I promise poker for next time. These flashbacks can’t last forever.

Math: Sebok vs. Haxton and Poker’s Rose

The chaos that seems to prevail in the labor markets conceals a pattern of order which can be explained and which sheds light on the influences that determine the inter-industry wage structure in the community – Sumner Slichter

Hang with me now; this eventually has something to do with poker.

In 1950, an economist named Sumner Sliichter changed the debate relative to labor market economics by using a different statistical lens to view wage behavior. He found, among other things, that a country’s wages were not solely determined by a single labor supply and demand function as many had assumed. He found that wages within an industry were a function of the individual industry’s “ability to pay” or its profitability.

In our world today, this would imply that the guy that orders materials for a computer company is probably paid more than the guy who orders materials for a textile mill, even though they may have the same educational background and skill. It doesn’t seem so ground breaking to us, as we intuitively know this, but back then it was a monster of a discovery. A country’s wage system is defined by the relative health and profitability of its underlying industries. It blew the door open to the field of industrial policy.

There were a couple of threads on 2+2 this week (no, not the latest BH drama bomb) based on a pokerroad radio interview that made me realize how narrowly we’ve defined “math” in poker. To a great extent, the paradigm we operate in relegates math to long-run probabilities and simulations based on comparative hand strength and an opponent’s likelihood to fold or call. In short, we use “long-run” EV to govern short-term situations, devoid of context. Anything behavioral, based on table make-up, or players’ demonstrated actions, is chalked up to intuition and somehow separate from the “math” of poker.

While I might argue with his choice of words, I agree with Barry Greenstein : “I always laugh when I hear these kids talk about math…my PhD was in combinatorial number theory…I know math probably better than every single one of those kids and I can tell you, that as a group, they don’t know how to use math for poker, they think they do, but they don’t.” Of course my objection is with the use of “these kids.” Our perception and definition of math in poker is far more systemic.

Joe Sebok claimed that he does not play according to math; but he refers to the math as defined by our poker paradigm. I would argue that in many ways, Joe’s decisions (and the decisions of both online and live players – god I hate that futile debate) are dictated by more complex mathematical concepts than Joe has probably ever studied.

If Joe had chosen statistics as his field of study, my guess is that he would have been a Bayesian. Bayesian statistics mathematically incorporates what we just learned (our “priors”) into what we are likely to expect. In their first hand together, Haxton reraises Sebok. Sebok has pocket kings and makes an easy call. Haxton shows down A-T. In their next hand together Haxton reraises Sebok again. Sebok calls with a somewhat weaker hand this time, pocket nines. Sebok admits this is a hand he might have folded had the previous hand not occurred; totally consistent with Bayesian statistics.

Another concept in the same vein that Haxton fails to address is habituation. This is a behavioral concept that we all know well. A fire alarm sounds in your workplace. You panic. You evacuate. It’s just a drill. A week later, the same thing happens. You panic a little less. You still evacuate. It turns out to be another drill. As each drill occurs, your response to the same stimuli diminishes. Pretty soon you’re sticking your middle finger in the air at the blaring alarm while you carry on at your desk. It is behavioral. But yes, it is also mathematical.

Haxton has to realize (and maybe does – I give both parties credit for more than they could articulate in a ten minute segment) that each successive time he applies the same stimuli, the probabilities associated with its response will change. His play may be correct if he assumes that Sebok will fold X% of the time. But does he really consider that the next time he does it, Sebok only folds (X-Y)% (where Y may be a funcion of X) of the time?…and so on. Haxton claims to be a “math” player, but does he really, mathematically, take that into account?

Are you with me so far?

Do you classify players by how they play, and alter your play based on that classification, i.e. weak, tight, aggressive, passive, etc? My god, you’re a mathematical genius. Intuitively you’re applying a statistical technique called Cluster Analysis. Cluster Analysis was a classification technique primarily used in Biology. In the early 1970’s two economists, James Farrell and Benjamin King used it in the field of finance; it was instrumental in changing the application of investment theory. Their analyses yielded different classifications of stocks based on their historical behavior, i.e. growth, cyclical, etc. From this mathematical understanding of behavior, portfolio diversification became a reality.

OK. So, is this poker’s rose that by any other name is still a rose? We call it intuition, psychology, and behavior, although it has a mathematical basis. Does it really matter? To some extent: no. There is plenty of math that can be applied to catching a fly ball, but I’m going to guess that Andruw Jones knows little of it. But then again, other disciplines have found a way to elevate their debates by naming their “behavioral” roses.

Photo Notes: Joe Sebok (Tunica 2006), Isaac Haxton (2007 WSOP), Barry Greenstein (Tunica 2006).

Ghost in the Machine

This morning I learned that Chip Reese had died in his sleep last night. As I began to compile a post for PokerNews, I had a kind of odd feeling. It’s not that I knew Chip (pictured at the 2007 WSOP) well at all; a nod in the hallway, a smile at the table. I had tremendous respect for his game and reveled in his 2006 WSOP HORSE bracelet.

But as I wrote, I couldn’t shake a nagging sort of feeling. And then I realized that the laptop I was using still housed many of the pictures I had taken of Chip. I’m sure I took pictures in my youth on my Brownie Instamic of people who later died, but there was something unsettling about having Chip’s pictures in the machine that was expelling its incessant hot breath beneath my hands.

I had the same feeling years ago when I learned that an old boyfriend had died suddenly in an airport during a business trip. I hadn’t spoken to him for many, many years. But there’s something very disquieting about learning that someone you slept with no longer resided on the planet. I don’t mean to equate the act of taking a picture with a more intimate encounter, but in a sense both capture a moment. When they’re gone, you’re the holder of that moment.

And I guess I also reflected on just how frail my moment was, compared to Chip’s family and friends – to those that played with him in the Big Game over the years; exchanging chips and stories – and moments. My condolences to all. I’m heading back to Vegas on Saturday and will surely spend some time at the Bellagio. I wonder how many people walking by Bobby’s Room will feel, as I will, that something is missing.

Please stop by Barry Greenstein’s site and listen to his reflections on Chip.

Of course I’ll also be hooking up with the bloggers soon, for our semi-annual quest to create more moments. And maybe this is a good place to insert some that we’ve already had. I’ll try to post some more over the next few days.

Bust and Global Warning Solved

What does it mean when all your friends are being arrested? I may have to spend a little more time with that question now that they nabbed my buddy Vinnie Procopio (pictured above at the 2007 LAPC). That makes four people I know arrested in the last few weeks on gambling charges.

I think Wicked Chops is trying to come up with a mob nickname for him, but I have always called him Vinnie “Prairie Dog” Procopio, because of the way he’s always popping up out of his seat when he plays. I guess Prairie Dog doesn’t quite work as a fearsome mob name though. In LA, Vinnie played some of the best short-stacked poker I’d ever seen. So I think he’s probably handling the situation with his usual, but unique to Jersey, calm.

In other news, we no longer have to worry about global warming. Climate scientists the world over noticed a decided and permanent shift in the weather a little over a week ago. They were able to identify the cause; hell had indeed frozen over, giving us at least 120 more years to spew crap into the atmosphere with impunity.

It took them awhile to track the actual source, but have now decided that it occurred the minute wildbill got engaged…to a woman even. One of the last remaining pokerboyz’ confirmed bachelors is tossing in the towel. I knew something was up when the wildone (pictured above with his intended…no wait…that’s a horse) took the woman on a date to the gun range; I mean that’s serious. Being the true romantic that he is, he proposed over the phone. Coward. Of course, if the Shrink actually settles down, it will mark the beginning of the new Ice Age. Luckily for the rest of the world, the Shrink seems more than content just grazing through EHarmony.

I’m a bit frazzled this week. The family pulls in tomorrow and the kitchen and family room are stripped down to the bare concrete. Mmmmm. How cozy. I’ve been doing utilitarian shopping for myself lately, so today’s trip to the grocery store was a bit mind boggling. What does one do in the produce aisle?

I played my new “home game” again this week. Again I made the final table without moneying. I did have one fun moment when I got a guy to lay down pocket aces by convincing that him I caught quads on the river. It’s just a really great group of guys. And if I ever need work done on my house (I mean if I ever pay someone to do work on my house) this is like the Austin contracting trade brain trust.

Well I’d better do a little more cleaning for the fam’s arrival; I don’t want them to find too much mortar dust on their pillows.